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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.