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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.