Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Steven Walker
Steven Walker

Lena is a seasoned casino strategist with over a decade of experience in roulette and other table games.